
Armchair Economists Are Sanguine
“Economics explains Trump’s appeal.”
Millions have said it. Millions more, obviously, were thinking it when voters chose to return Donald J. Trump to the White House after a four-year hiatus.
Back in October 2021, a Facebook message proclaimed, “In case you forgot. Two years ago today, we were experiencing the greatest economy in the history of the world.” Facebook flagged the message as false.1 Regardless, the rank and file believed the message then and believe like gospel now that only Trump can make the economy do whatever it’s supposed to do. Their faith is not based on Trump’s business record — which is wretched — but on his boasting. It was Trump and only Trump who drummed into them these past four years that the American economy had been the best in history under him. The truth of that statement, however, depends on which economy Trump is talking about.
Advanced armchair economists are aware that the American economy under Trump did not achieve what he claimed. Unlike the rank and file, they are familiar with the indicators that show economic strength. They review those numbers. While Trump crowed about his low inflation, those economists know he inherited low inflation from his predecessor, whose middle name is Hussein. Our economists know the year-over-year inflation rate increased slightly — from 1.4% during Barack Obama’s tenure to 1.9% under Trump.2
In tearing Joe Biden apart for inflation, Trump supporters failed to consider that Biden had to grapple with the fallout of a global pandemic that raged after Trump had checked out, not to mention Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the dramatic turmoil of energy prices that ensued. Inflation peaked at 9.1% under Biden in June 2022, but he wrestled it down to under 3% without triggering another recession, a remarkable feat. No matter. He continues to be excoriated for that inflation when something else is the culprit: Opportunistic corporations loading crippling high prices onto an economic train wreck and letting the blame for those hikes slide over to Biden in the guise of inflation, which it did.3
In his second administration, Trump will seek neither approval, compliance, nor cooperation. Besides feeling good, shoving his decisions through political thickets shows off his power.
Other tedious indicators of economic health, as our economists well know, include GDP growth, unemployment, and wage growth, areas where Trump’s performance ranged from average to disappointing.4 That, however, did not stop him from taking credit for the positive trends set in motion by the Obama administration. Meanwhile, with exceedingly low Federal interests rates and a growing economy, Trump chose to introduce a $1.9 trillion tax cut that did not return the benefits to the general economy Trump promised, instead increasing the federal budget deficit for no good reason. There was no emergency. When the emergency did hit — the pandemic — and all that money missing, it could have meant disaster. But it was not Trump’s mess. Biden stepped into it and worked with an increasingly recalcitrant Congress to achieve an impressive recovery, something met with disdain and denial by Trump and, consequently, by his followers.
Taking over a growing, healthy economy and keeping the numbers decent in no way compensates for Trump’s roughshod behavior. Whatever he poked at — immigration, travel bans, trade, tariffs, free press, opposition journalism, courts, elections, global warming — left lesions, ruptures, bruises, and a festering distrust among demographics, industries, and countries while encouraging sycophants and cronyism. As an unforced error of a political neophyte it might be excused, except it was not. Trump chooses to move with force to blindside and dominant as he has all his life. Serving as U.S. president within a three-branch government with laws, rules, protocols, precedent, committees, balances, and checks didn’t change that. In his second administration, Trump will seek neither approval, compliance, nor cooperation. Besides feeling good, shoving his decisions through political thickets shows off his power. Consensus, for which he has no patience in any case, is not his style, and no one knows more than he does anyway, about anything.
While the U.S. economy under Trump was decent though not stellar, Trump’s first tenure in the White House did wonders for another economy. We can fully expect the man to thrive this time around as well. We already know what financial liabilities we’re in for. The Secret Service will again be overburdened with the tall order of guarding his vivacious, travel-lusty brood as they fly to his golf clubs for important social and foreign events, in turn requiring it to pay Trump’s inflated prices for its agents’ onsite accommodations as they perform their duties.
Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, or Justin Trudeau might not be as eager to visit Mar-a-Lago nor would they be invited in order to reserve prime slots for Vladimir Putin, Victor Orbán, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the shy Kim Jong-Un.
The U.S. citizenry will again have the privilege of hosting world leaders and luminaries at Trump’s clubs in lavish fashion, though a different set this time. Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, or Justin Trudeau might not be as eager to visit Mar-a-Lago nor would they be invited in order to reserve prime slots for Vladimir Putin, Victor Orbán, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the shy Kim Jong-Un. In recently doubling yearly membership at Mar-a-Lago to $1 million,5 Trump made sure to restrict proximity to only those keenly interested in his welfare. This select initiate will have the chance to be within earshot when Trump sets down before his foreign guests a carton or two of the latest cache of confidential documents hauled down from D.C. What a fine evening of entertainment Trump will be able to provide, encouraging them to sort through the papers to zero in on those for which they would very much like to do something for Trump’s economy. Falling within the official duties of the president and shielded by the generous nimbus of presidential immunity, press coverage would be neither necessary nor permitted during those cozy evenings. And the Supreme Court has done away with any overweening concern about emoluments, whatever they are.6
Yes, the entire country knew Kamala Harris changed her mind about fracking over the past several years, a clear disqualification for serving as president of the United States. Millions more were uneasy about her word salads and vague “opportunity economy.” When Trump, on the other hand, changed his mind from rally to rally it meant nothing because no one took seriously what he said in the first place. As for Trump’s clarity, one need only rely on his rock-solid promise: “I’ll fix it.” That’s good enough for them. Just look at his previous record. The greatest economy in the history of the world. Oh boy. Of course, they went for him again.
As Trump prepares to return to the White House, questions as to just how he’s going to fix the economy may betray some small desire for greater precision. Will he really rip apart communities and businesses to deport 20 million undocumented immigrants at exorbitant cost to taxpayers? Will he really impose 200% tariffs on enemy imports with consumers left to cope with however prices happen to adjust themselves as a result? Will he really ask Elon Musk to cut $2 trillion out of the fatty federal budget?
Since Trump doesn’t always do what he says he will, we’ll just have to wait and see and take it. But whatever he does, we can be sure it will be just right for his economy.
- https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/oct/08/facebook-posts/no-donald-trump-didnt-lead-greatest-economy-histor/ ↩︎
- https://www.investopedia.com/us-inflation-rate-by-president-8546447 ↩︎
- “Even as inflation has normalized, many households are still adjusting to prices that are more than 21% higher on average than in early 2020, with some goods and services having surged even more.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-report-september-2024-cost-of-living-rcna174740 ↩︎
- Prior to the pandemic, Trump’s GDP growth was average compared to his predecessors. Low unemployment inherited from the Obama administration’s recovery program sank further under Trump to 3.5%. Though it reflected no innovative policy on Trump’s part, Trump took full credit. That unemployment spiked at 14.8% during his term Trump does not mention. Wage growth under Trump was disappointing considering the 3.5% unemployment rate. ↩︎
- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/trump-mar-a-lago-membership-price-hike ↩︎
- On Jan. 5, 2021, the Supreme Court “put an end to two lawsuits that had accused President Donald J. Trump of violating the Constitution’s emoluments clauses by profiting from his hotels and restaurants in New York and Washington. In brief orders, the court wiped out rulings against Mr. Trump in the two cases and dismissed them as moot. There were no dissents noted.” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/us/emoluments-trump-supreme-court.html This was not the end of the affair. On Jan. 12, 2024, Rep. Jamie Raskin, Ranking Member of the Committee on Oversight and Accountability, sent a letter to former President Donald Trump demanding he return $7.8 million he freely admitted to accepting from foreign governments, without Congressional consent, in violation of the U.S. Constitution’s Foreign Emoluments Clause. https://oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-releases/following-trump-s-admission-he-pocketed-millions-from-foreign-governments-as ↩︎
Another impressive effort! I keep thinking the ACLU will be essential, and hoping that the dementia will be so obvious that the midterms will provide relief.